My track record as an Oscar prognosticator is, to put it charitably, uneven. On the other hand, I
did manage to predict the Best Picture win by
Chariots of Fire a quarter-century ago. And I think there may be two similarly surprising upsets on Sunday night. For what they’re worth – which, trust me, likely isn’t much – here are my guesstimates, along with some second-guessing.
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN:
Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN:
The Departed
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Marc Forster’s exquisitely spare yet emotionally resonant
Stranger Than FictionACTOR
WILL WIN:
Forest Whitaker (
The Last King of Scotland)
SHOULD WIN:
Peter O’Toole (for, I freely admit, purely sentimental reasons)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
Aaron Eckhart, for his ferociously funny and fearless performance as an amoral PR spinner in
Thank You for SmokingACTRESSWILL WIN:
Helen Mirren (
The Queen)
SHOULD WIN: Helen Mirren
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
Gretchen Mol, for her tantalizingly ambiguous portrayal of a ‘50s pin-up queen who may be innocent
and knowing in
The Notorious Bettie PageSUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN:
Alan Arkin (a.k.a. Upset No. 1) for
Little Miss SunshineSHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
James McAvoy, if only because he hasn’t been given sufficient credit for his shrewdly nuanced performance as the callow Scottish doctor who’s all-too-easily seduced by a gregariously psychotic Idi Amin in
The Last King of Scotland. (It can be argued, of course, that McAvoy actually was the lead, and Whitaker was the supporting player – but, hey, that’s showbiz.)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN:
Abigail Breslin (a.k.a. Upset No. 2) for
Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN:
Rinko Kikuchi for
Babel
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Maggie Gyllenhaal for either
World Trade Center or
Stranger Than Fiction
DIRECTOR
WILL WIN:
Martin Scorsese (
The Departed)
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
Robert Altman for the deeply affecting long goodbye of
A Prairie Home Companion