My (very) indirect tie to Allen Stanford

If you look over the portfolio of the outfit run by accused fraudster Allen Stanford, you'll see The Standford Financial Group produced The Ultimate Gift, which was -- I swear to God, I'm not joking! -- a faith-based, Christian-skewing drama about the seductive evil of greed, the empty promises of wealth and the transforming power of love. (James Garner, Brian Dennehy, Abigail Breslin and Drew Fuller figured prominently in the cast.) I reviewed the indie movie for Variety two years ago, and had a few nice things to say about it. I hope that doesn't mean I'll be called in for questioning by the FBI or the SEC.

Ben and Mary-Kate sitting in a tree....

First, he nails Tea Leoni in You Kill Me. Now, he's locking lips with Mary-Kate Olsen in The Wackness. At this rate, I suppose we can expect any day now the announcement that Ben Kingsley will be co-starring with Abigail Breslin.

I can't... resist... Overwhelming urge... Must offer Oscar predictions...

My track record as an Oscar prognosticator is, to put it charitably, uneven. On the other hand, I did manage to predict the Best Picture win by Chariots of Fire a quarter-century ago. And I think there may be two similarly surprising upsets on Sunday night. For what they’re worth – which, trust me, likely isn’t much – here are my guesstimates, along with some second-guessing.

BEST PICTURE

WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: The Departed
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Marc Forster’s exquisitely spare yet emotionally resonant Stranger Than Fiction

ACTOR

WILL WIN: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
SHOULD WIN: Peter O’Toole (for, I freely admit, purely sentimental reasons)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Aaron Eckhart, for his ferociously funny and fearless performance as an amoral PR spinner in Thank You for Smoking

ACTRESS

WILL WIN: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
SHOULD WIN: Helen Mirren
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Gretchen Mol, for her tantalizingly ambiguous portrayal of a ‘50s pin-up queen who may be innocent and knowing in The Notorious Bettie Page

SUPPORTING ACTOR

WILL WIN: Alan Arkin (a.k.a. Upset No. 1) for Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: James McAvoy, if only because he hasn’t been given sufficient credit for his shrewdly nuanced performance as the callow Scottish doctor who’s all-too-easily seduced by a gregariously psychotic Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. (It can be argued, of course, that McAvoy actually was the lead, and Whitaker was the supporting player – but, hey, that’s showbiz.)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

WILL WIN: Abigail Breslin (a.k.a. Upset No. 2) for Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Rinko Kikuchi for Babel
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Maggie Gyllenhaal for either World Trade Center or Stranger Than Fiction

DIRECTOR

WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Robert Altman for the deeply affecting long goodbye of A Prairie Home Companion